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Dec 01
Love0

Gross Domestic Product: A Primer

By Blog, Financial Planning

Gross Domestic Product: A Primer

The economic indicator known as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the dollar value of all purchased goods and services over the course of one year. It is comprised of purchases from all private and public consumption, including for profit, nonprofit and government sectors.

There are four components that are added to calculate the GDP:

  • Consumer spending
  • Government spending
  • Investment spending (this includes business, inventory, residential construction and public investment),   Net exports, meaning the value of goods exported minus the value of goods imported

The government calculates and publishes the GDP rate on a quarterly basis and for the entire year.

What Affects GDP?

There are different ways GDP is measured. For example, nominal GDP refers to a straight calculation of raw data, while real GDP adjusts the calculation to include the impact of inflation.

When inflation increases, the GDP tends to rise; when prices drop, so does the GDP. Be aware that this adjustment can happen even when there is no change in the quantity of goods and services produced in the United States during that time frame.

A key component of the GDP calculation is net exports. This number rises when the country sells more goods and services to foreign countries than it buys from them. A trade surplus means the United States sells more than it purchases, which is a strong contributor to GDP. When the United States buys more foreign goods than it sells, this creates a trade deficit, which is a negative weight in the GDP calculation.

GDP also reflects demand. The dollar output of certain sectors and industries rises and falls based on the popularity of their products and services. For example, when a new product is well received, then those sales increase that sector’s contribution to the GDP. This is a helpful measure because it enables companies to make better research and development decisions based on recent success. The same is true when a new product, or even an upgrade to a new product, does not increase sales.

What Does GDP Indicate?

The GDP is the most common, broad-based measure used to monitor the country’s economic progress. When it is on the rise, the economy is considered to be growing. When the GDP rate drops – even if it remains in positive territory – the economy is viewed as contracting. If it continues to slip quarter after quarter, it is an indicator that the economy might be in trouble and the Federal Reserve or Congress could consider altering monetary (interest rates) or fiscal (taxes and government spending) policy to inject cash into the nation’s financial system.

Technically, economists define a recession as a prolonged period of economic decline, often precipitated by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

This economic yardstick also is used to indicate a country’s general standard of living. The better a country is able to produce the goods and services that its residents and businesses use, the more that capital is infused back into the country. Therefore, higher GDP levels indicate a more prosperous country and relatively higher standard of living among its residents.

The GDP doesn’t just gauge domestic economic health, it serves as a comparison measure to other countries. This is particularly important during periods of growth and decline, when the United States can track how well it is responding to global economic factors relative to other countries.

Current Trendline

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, first quarter real GDP closed at 3.1 percent. In the second quarter, real GDP fell to 2.0 percent. The advanced assessment for the third quarter of 2019 is 1.9 percent.

 

Dec 01
Love0

What Would a Phase One Deal with China Encompass?

By Blog, Stock Market News

What Would a Phase One Trade Deal with China Encompass?The so-called phase one of a trade deal with China is expected to contain a provision for $40 billion to $50 billion in purchases of American agricultural products by China, according to an October news release from U.S. Sen. John Hoeven (D-ND) With ongoing discussions surrounding the US-Sino trade talks, there are rumors for such a partial trade deal. But how has the recent past impacted both countries’ economies and a mutual desire for better trade deals?

While not directly related but announced during a similar time frame, a November press release from the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced Chinese acknowledgment and acceptance of American poultry exports. This stated that China will now accept $1 billion in American poultry and related poultry products, effectively reversing China’s ban.

After a December 2014 avian influenza outbreak, China banned US poultry in January 2015. America exported more than half a billion dollars of poultry to China in 2013, and there has been much interest in restarting exports to China since August 2017. With the USTR citing U.S. poultry exports of $4.3 billion in 2018, this will undoubtedly ensure America maintains its position as the globe’s second biggest poultry exporter.

According to a late October press release from the USTR, there will be a 30-day comment period in November to garner public opinion on continuing tariff exemptions on certain Chinese goods, worth approximately $34 billion. The items currently exempt are set to reverse exclusion on Dec. 28. Additionally, as part of phase one discussions, the United States is expected to not implement tariffs scheduled to take effect on Dec. 15, along with rolling back existing tariffs in stages.

Trade War’s Impact

According to BNP Paribas Wealth Management, the trade impasse between the United States and China has had a measurable negative impact on the world’s economy. BNP cited a 1.2 percent point reduction in growth over the past 1.5 years.

However, the phase one deal is expected to include many provisions, such as $40 billion to $50 billion of US farm product exports to China, along with $16 billion to $20 billion of Boeing aircraft for commercial use to China.

Financial institutions outside of China will be able to establish insurance companies in mainland China, financed by ex-China investments, along with being able to hold shares in the newly created entities. Ex-China lending institutions will be able to create wholly owned banks and conduct business in the Yuan or Renminbi (RMB) currency throughout mainland China without explicit approval from Chinese officials.

These developments, according to the Chinese State Council and China Banking and Regulatory Commission and CNBC, are part of the ongoing discussions to determine how China will increase IP protection and the aforementioned agricultural purchases. Announced on Oct. 11, 2019, the China Securities Regulatory Commission will work on lifting limits on ownership ceilings for ex-China entities, specifically in mutual funds, securities and futures operating in China.

BNP also mentions expectations of Dec. 15, 2019, tariffs to not be implemented, along with expectations for existing tariffs to be relaxed or reduced. In addition to giving American farmers increased sales, this will provide China with more soybeans for domestic consumption, including an ability to help increase the number of the country’s pork livestock population through feedstock. If phase one is agreed to, it’s also expected to help the RMB appreciate. Based on recent data, the RMB has appreciated by three percent since September 2019.   

One noteworthy item that depends on a phase one deal being certified is the expectation that it will positively impact the global economy. The International Monetary Fund dropped its World Economic Outlook gross domestic product projection from 3.2 percent in July 2019, down to 3.0 percent, based on the current trade tensions.

Since there’s great hope for a phase one deal that will encourage mutual and global economic development, there’s confidence that both countries facing economic hardships will find a short-term resolution.

Dec 01
Love0

Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment – and Depreciation

By Blog, General Business News

Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment - and DepreciationWhen it comes to determining depreciation for Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment (FF&E), there are many considerations that exist for accountants and business owners.

Defining Furniture, Fixtures and Equipment

FF&E refers to expenses for business items that are not affixed to the building where that business operates. Real world examples of depreciable assets includes chairs, desks, phones, tables, cabinets, etc., which are used to perform business-related tasks, directly or indirectly. These types of items are associated with long-term use generally more than 12 months, according to the Internal Revenue Service.

Understanding How It Works

When it comes to accounting for the expense of the item, it can be depreciated equally and discreetly over its useful life. According to the IRS’ General Depreciation System (GDS), these office items such as safes, desks and files, are expected to have a seven-year life.

While there are different approaches to calculate depreciation, a common way to do so is through straight-line depreciation. This method is used by many organizations, including The Federal Reserve, and it works by starting with how much the item cost to acquire or its adjusted basis. From there, the item’s cost is reduced by the salvage value, or the asset’s value after its useful life. The resulting figure is divided by the number of months of the asset’s useful life. Once the asset has exhausted this amount of time, it remains on the books as its salvage value until it’s sold or removed from service.

Using the straight-line method, a company might find the monthly depreciation charge for a truck purchase like this. The company purchases a new truck for $40,000; assuming a 60-month useful life allowable by the IRS and a 20 percent salvage value, the formula would be as follows:

  1. $40,000 – (20 percent x $40,000) / 60 months
  2. $40,000 – ($8,000) / 60 months
  3. $32,000 / 60 = $533.33 per month for monthly depreciation

Special Considerations

In addition to tangible property, some intangible property also can be depreciated under the right circumstances. Examples the IRS cites of this primarily intellectual property includes copyrights, patents and software. Conditions for depreciation of this type of intangible property include that it must be owned by the business owner, used within the business or for profit-related activities, have a useful life and can be used by the business for more than a year.

The IRS gives an example of an individual buying a patent for $5,100. Using the straight-line method, the IRS permits this type of non-section 197 intangible property to be depreciated under certain conditions. The owner then must reduce any salvage value from the non-section 197 intangible property’s adjusted basis and depreciate it over the patent’s useful life, prorating terms less than a year, if applicable.  

Eligible Intangible Property Example

Assume the individual bought a patent in May to be used starting June 1 of the same year. The patent was bought for $5,100, has a 17-year useful life and won’t have any salvage value.

The first year of depreciation must be prorated for six months, since it will be used from June to December of the first year. Taking these circumstances and rules from the IRS, the first year’s depreciation available is $150. Each subsequent year, the 16 remaining will be $300 each.

While there are many intricacies for depreciation, understanding how it applies to each business’ operations will help give a fair assessment of an equipment’s value.

Sources

https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p946.pdf

Dec 01
Love1

How to Defer, Avoid Paying Capital Gains Tax on Stock Sales

By Blog, Tax and Financial News

How to Defer, Avoid Paying Capital Gains Tax on Stock SalesThe markets are hitting all-time highs, so if you are thinking of selling stocks now or in the near future, there is a good chance that you will have capital gains on the sale. If you’ve held the stocks for more than a year, then they will qualify for the more favorable long-term capital gains tax (instead of being taxed at ordinary income rates for short-term sales). But the total tax due can still be enough to warrant some tax planning. Luckily, the tax laws provide for several ways to defer or even completely avoid paying taxes on your securities sales.

1. Using Tax Losses

Utilizing losses is the least attractive of all the options in this article since you obviously had to lose money on one security in order to avoid paying taxes on another. The real play here is what is often referred to as tax-loss harvesting. This is where you purposely sell shares that are at a loss position in order to offset the gains on profitable sales and then redeploy this capital somewhere else. You’ll need to carefully weigh where to put the money from the sale of the shares sold at a loss as you can’t just buy the same stocks back. This is considered a “wash sale” and invalidates the strategy.

2. The 10 Percent to 15 Percent Tax Bracket

For taxpayers in either the 10 percent or 12 percent income tax brackets, their long-term capital gains rate is 0 percent. The income caps for qualifying for the 12 percent income tax rate is $39,375 for single filers and $78,750 for joint filers in 2019 ($40,000 and $80,000, respectively in 2020). Also, keep in mind that the stock sales themselves add to this limit – so calculate carefully.

Aside from selling appreciated securities yourself, another way to take advantage of the 0 percent bracket is to gift the stock to someone else instead of selling the securities and then giving the cash. Beware, however, as trying to do this with your kids can disqualify the 0 percent treatment because the kiddie tax is triggered on gifted stock sold to children younger than 19 or under 24 if a full-time student.

3. Donate

Donating appreciated securities is where we start to get into the more beneficial strategies. This technique only makes sense if you were already planning to make charitable contributions. Say for example you are planning to donate $10,000 to an organization and are in the 25 percent tax bracket. In order to write a donation check for $10,000, you would have had to earn $13,333 in income to sell the same amount of stock in order to have $10,000 left after taxes to make a cash donation in that amount.

If you donate appreciated stock instead, you only need to donate securities valued at $10,000 and you get to deduct $10,000 as a charitable deduction. That avoids the capital gains tax completely. Plus, it generates for you a bigger tax deduction for the full market value of donated shares held more than one year – and it results in a larger donation.

4. Qualified Opportunity Zones

This is the newest and most complicated (as well as controversial) way to defer or avoid capital gains taxes. Opportunity Zones were created via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to encourage investment in low-income and distressed communities. Qualified Opportunity Zones can defer or eliminate capital gains tax by utilizing three mechanisms through Opportunity Funds – the investment vehicle that invests in Opportunity Zones.

First, they offer a temporary deferral of taxes on previously earned capital gains if investors place existing assets into Opportunity Funds. These capital gains defer taxation until the end of 2026 or whenever the asset is disposed of – whichever is first.

Second, capital gains placed in Opportunity Funds for a minimum of five years receive a step-up in basis of 10 percent – and if held for at least seven years, 15 percent.

Third, they offer an opportunity to permanently avoid taxation on new capital gains. If the opportunity fund is held for at least 10 years, the investor will pay no tax on capital gains earned through the Opportunity Fund.

Again, the caveat here is that the details of Opportunity Zone investments can be extremely complicated, so it’s best not to attempt this one on your own. Consult with your tax advisor.

5. Die with Appreciated Stock

Unfortunately, while probably the least popular method for readers, this is certainly the most effective. When a person passes away, the cost basis of their securities receives a step-up in basis to the fair market value to the date of their death. As an example, if you purchased Amazon stock for $50 per share and when you pass away it is worth $1,700 per share, your heir’s basis in the inherited stock is $1,700. This means if they sell it at $1,700, they pay no tax at all.

Conclusion

None of the above methods are loopholes or tax dodges; they are all completely legitimate. However, your ability to take advantage of these techniques will depend on your income level, personal goals and even your age. As a result, it’s best to consult with your tax advisor to see what makes sense for your personal situation.

Nov 01
Love0

Fighting Foreign Terrorism on Homeland Soil, Increased Protections for Clean Water and Low-Income Veterans, and New Appropriations for FY2020

By Blog, Congress at Work

Fighting Foreign Terrorism on Homeland Soil, Increased Protections for Clean Water and Low-Income Veterans, and New Appropriations for FY2020Terrorist and Foreign Fighter Travel Exercise Act of 2019 (HR 1590) – This bill promotes the identification and determent of terrorist activity from reaching the homeland, and enhances the United States government’s ability to respond to terrorism, including emerging threats. Specifically, the legislation requires the Department of Homeland Security to develop and conduct exercises related to foreign terrorism, including the National Incident Management System, National Response Plan, and other related plans and strategies. The legislation was introduced on March 7 by Rep. Michael Guest (R-MS). The president signed the bill into law on Oct. 9.

Alaska Remote Generator Reliability and Protection Act (S 163) – This bill is designed to prevent catastrophic failure or shutdown of remote diesel power engines due to emission control devices in remote areas of Alaska. It instructs the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to revise particulate matter emissions standards for nonemergency stationary diesel engines, and to report on methods for assisting these areas in meeting specified energy needs. The legislation was introduced by Rep. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) on Jan. 16 and signed into law by the president on Oct. 4.

A bill to permit States to transfer certain funds from the clean water revolving fund of a State to the drinking water revolving fund of the State in certain circumstances, and for other purposes (S 1689) – Introduced on May 23 by Rep. Cory Booker (D-NJ), this legislation was enacted on Oct. 4. The bill empowers states with the ability to transfer up to 5 percent of federal grant funds from its clean water fund to its drinking water fund to help address any threats to public health resulting from increased exposure to lead in drinking water. This reallocation is available for only one year.

Autism Collaboration, Accountability, Research, Education and Support Act of 2019 (HR 1058) – This legislation reauthorizes the previous Autism CARES Act of 2014 to expand government programs to include older people with autism who are often misdiagnosed and underdiagnosed. The bill allocates $1.8 billion in funding for autism programs to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health and the Health Resources & Services Administration. The legislation was sponsored by Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ). It was introduced on Feb. 7 and signed into law by the president on Sept. 30.

Department of Veterans Affairs Expiring Authorities Act of 2019 (HR 4285) – This legislation reauthorizes funding for programs and services at the Veterans Administration, which were set to expire at the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. The bill extends funding for two specific programs. 1.) Keeping Our Commitment to Overseas Veterans Act of 2019, to keep the VA Regional Office and Outpatient Clinic in Manila, Philippines, open for business through Sept. 30, 2020. This clinic provides healthcare, benefits and services to thousands of U.S. veterans living in the Philippines. 2.) Supportive Services for Veteran Families program (through Sept. 30, 2021), which provides grants for supportive services to assist very low-income veterans and their families who are either residing in permanent housing or transitioning from homelessness. The bill was introduced on Sept. 11 by Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-NY) and was signed into law by the president on Sept. 30.

Continuing Appropriations Act, 2020, and Health Extenders Act of 2019 (HR 4378) – Known as a continuing resolution (CR), this bill prevents a government shutdown by continuing fiscal year 2020 appropriations to federal agencies through Nov. 21. The bill was introduced by Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY) on Sept. 18 and signed into law on Sept. 27.

National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2020 (S 1790) – Introduced on June 11 by Rep. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), this is an original bill that authorizes U.S. Military appropriations for fiscal year 2020 for the Department of Defense, military construction and Department of Energy defense activities. The legislation both authorizes appropriations and sets forth policies, requirements and limitations for how funds are used. The legislation was passed by Congress on Sept. 17 and is currently awaiting signature by the president.

Nov 01
Love0

How to Stay Safe with Business Email Compromise on the Rise

By Blog, What's New in Technology

Email Compromise, hacked emailAccording to a report by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) released in July, financial institutions have incurred more than $9 billion in losses due to Business Email Compromise (BEC) schemes since 2016. With such staggering losses, businesses and even individuals can’t afford to ignore BEC attacks.

What is BEC?

BEC fraud involves cyber thieves posing as company executives or a business contact with the intention to commit wire transfer fraud or obtain sensitive information. The main targets are businesses working with foreign suppliers or a business that carries out regular wire-transfer payments.

To carry out this attack, criminals might pretend to be the company CEO and request that a junior staff member perform a task for them, such as transferring funds. Attackers take advantage of the fact that most organizations don’t have a set procedure to verify instructions received from the top management.

How Attackers Collect Data from their Targets

Cyber criminals use various techniques to carry out BEC fraud, with the main aim of stealing funds from the victims. The techniques used include:

  • Imposter techniques – this can be carried out in various ways. Attackers use a look-alike domain, display-name deception and spoofed emails that appear to come from legitimate addresses.
  • Social engineering – when a target has not set appropriate privacy settings on social media accounts, an attacker can easily collect information that will make their requests sound legitimate.
  • Malware – this enables attackers to have access to sensitive information that makes the fake request sound legitimate.
  • Mining from the Dark Web – here attackers can obtain stolen credentials.

How to Avoid BEC Attacks

It is difficult for conventional security systems to detect BEC schemes. Consider a case in which a transaction is initiated willingly by a legitimate user in response to a request from a legitimate source. Such an email has no payloads such as malicious attachments that can be blocked.

Here are some methods to help reduce the possibility of these attacks:

  • Raising awareness of common attack scenarios or tactics used by the cyber criminals, such as a false domain name that looks almost like the original one, impersonation of a vendor, false sense of urgency or a request for secrecy.
  • Training employees on cyber security risks and implications.
  • Implementing email authentication protocols like Domain-Based Message  Authentication, Reporting and Conformance (DMARC) and email authentication, such as DomainKeys Identified Mail (DKIM).
  • Using layered defense, such as encryption, and virtual private networks.
  • Implementing a multifactor authentication that will introduce a secondary authorization control. This will help stop attackers even when they have access to the target’s credentials.
  • Establishing communication protocols that will allow for a follow-up. For instance, if the person is requesting financial transactions, an employee should call to ascertain the request.
  • Scrutinizing all emails that request for fund transfer.
  • Monitoring incoming email, especially those that use VIP names.
  • Optimizing accounting systems and controls.

Final Thoughts

Apart from taking precautionary measures, businesses also should make sure that their insurance specifically covers BEC attacks, as courts might have different interpretations of policies. Consider the case of Apache Corporation, which lost $7million due to a BEC attack. The judge ruled that since the money was sent to pay a legitimate invoice to the wrong bank, it was not covered by their insurance policy.

Note that a majority of these criminals are from countries that might not have strict laws on cybercrime, making it difficult to have them prosecuted.

So, whether you run a small, medium or large business, or even a personal account, it’s vital that you take precautionary measures against the increasing BEC schemes.

Nov 01
Love0

5 Ways to Save on Holiday Gifting

By Blog, Tip of the Month

Save on Holiday Gifting, Save GiftBelieve it or not, the holidays are right around the corner. And try as you might, overspending is real – whether you plan ahead or wait until the last minute. With this in mind, here are a few ways to get a handle on spending and save money on gifting.

Set Limits. Decide how much you’re going to spend overall on holiday gifts and how many people you’re buying for. Then do the math. For instance, you might want to spend $250 for 10 people. That’s $25 per person. However, there might be those you want to spend more on, which is perfectly understandable. But you can get into trouble when you buy your sister an expensive sweater and then feel like you need spend just as much your brother, mother or aunt. Spending sprawl sets in and it’s a runaway train. One way to avoid this situation is deciding before you shop how you’ll divvy up the amount you’ve set aside. While the holidays are special, remember that your family and friends also have birthdays, which means you don’t have to throw down a big chunk of change in one fell swoop during this time of year.

Shop Thanksgiving Weekend. Believe it or not, Thanksgiving Day has historically been the best time to find bargains. And you don’t have to leave your turkey dinner and run to the mall, unless you want to (read: uncomfortable family dynamic). The good news is that, on this day of carb overload, you can also find great deals online. If you miss the sales on Thanksgiving, you can always hit Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Black Friday, if you can stand the crowds, yields serious savings. And the beauty of Cyber Monday is you can shop from your favorite chair in your PJs, if you want.

Buy Gifts for Kids at Cheaper Stores. While adults might appreciate a brand name gift from, say, Neiman Marcus, kids really don’t care. Look online at Hollar.com for some great deals, as well as at discount stores like Walmart and Kmart, where you’ll find some big markdowns on popular gifts. The truth is, you don’t have to pay full retail prices from fancy stores for gifts that will surprise and delight the little ones.

Make Your Own Gifts. If you’re a craftsperson, handmade gifts always touch the heart: quilts, paintings, photographs, jewelry, bath and body products and so on. If you’re not so crafty, then going to holiday fairs are a good way to select handmade gifts. Etsy is another great place to find handcrafted items. Food is also a heartfelt gift to make and give, especially for the person who has everything. No matter what you choose to make, chances are you’ll save big time.

Give Secondhand Gifts. The key to giving this sort of gift is knowing where to shop. Good places to check are thrift stores and used bookstores, where you can find gently used clothing, board games, jewelry, books and even CDs and DVDs. Just make sure to check for rips or tears that might be unsightly. If you don’t want to make the trek, eBay is great for people who are collectors. Amazon even has items that are used. Just check to see if there’s a link that says “used and new offers” on the page of the product you’re looking for. All of the aforementioned resources can be treasure troves for terrific, affordable finds.

While it’s the spirit of giving that the holidays are all about, saving when you’re gifting might be one of the best gifts of all.

Sources

https://www.simple.com/blog/how-to-save-money-on-holiday-presents

https://www.moneycrashers.com/ways-save-money-holiday-gifts-friends-family/

https://www.dealnews.com/features/Thanksgiving-Day-Will-Top-Black-Friday-for-the-Best-Deals/857586.html

Nov 01
Love0

What to Expect and How to Prepare for a Recession

By Blog, Financial Planning

Prepare for a RecessionEconomists generally determine that the country has fallen into a recession after two consecutive quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Since 1967, the United States has experienced seven recessions.

The thing is, predicting a recession is a little like predicting a tornado. Experts are never exactly sure if or when one will occur, but they can cite when conditions a ripe for one based past experience. The good news for predictors is that the economy follows a similar pattern of indicators in the months leading up to a recession.

The bad news is that many those indicators have recently emerged. For example:

  • Inverted Yield Curve – This is when the yield on longer-term Treasury bonds is lower than the yield on shorter-term Treasury bonds, which happened recently for the first time since 2007. On average, an inverted yield curve has occurred 14 months in advance of every recession in the past 50 years.
  • Corporate Profits – Estimates for corporate earnings growth have dropped substantially since last year, from 7.6 percent to 2.3 percent.
  • Global Trade – The ongoing U.S. trade war with China has resulted in weakness in the manufacturing and farming industries. Moreover, global trade volume is also down, which further reduces the market for U.S.-manufactured goods.

What to Expect in a Recession

The worst recession in U.S. history was the most recent one, between 2007 and 2009. Dubbed the Great Recession, it was short (compared to the Great Depression of 1929-1939) but it took a powerful toll on a large chunk of the population. For example, close to half of U.S. households lost at least 25 percent of their net worth; one out of every four households lost at least 75 percent of their net worth.

About one-third of households experienced one or more of the following:

  • Fell more than two months behind on their mortgage
  • Had their home foreclosed
  • Had their home equity drop into negative territory
  • Lost a job

That was a bad recession. Fortunately, while economists are seeing signs of another one on the horizon, as of now (absent any significant shocks) they do not expect it to be as severe.

Tips to Prepare for a Recession

With multiple warning signs evident, it appears we do have some time before a recession potentially hits. It’s a good idea to use this time to protect your financial situation to help minimize any impact that a recession can have on you personally. The following are some tips to consider.

Shore Up Your Finances

Start by reducing your debt as much as possible, particularly any accounts exposed to a variable interest rate. The interest on credit cards and home equity lines of credit have a habit of increasing when you can least afford it. If you have a variable rate mortgage you might want to refinance at today’s low fixed mortgage rates so your monthly payments do not increase. One way to generate a robust savings fund is to temporarily suspend contributions to a retirement plan and save that money in a readily available account.

Minimize Household Expenses

Most people have to cut back on household expenses during a recession, so you might as well start now to help you prepare. For example, consider trading in a gas-guzzling car for one with better gas mileage and lower monthly payments, or pull the plug on cable TV and switch to a streaming service. Deploying these cost-reduction strategies now not only reduces your expenses during a recession but will also help contribute to your savings fund.

In many areas of the country, real estate prices are at the top of the market. It might be worth considering selling your house now while you can get a good price. This will give you a pot of cash to sit on during the recession, which is especially helpful if you lose your job. In fact, after the sale you may consider renting until real estate prices drop and you can purchase another home at a good price – and maintain a healthy cache of savings. This strategy could also save you from raiding your investment portfolio for money – helping protect your future financial security.

Protect Your Investment Portfolio

Take a good look at your portfolio and give it a recession stress test. Consider reallocating some funds to options that tend to perform reliably during an economic decline, such as:

  • Government bonds
  • Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
  • Corporate Inflation-Protected Securities (CIPS)
  • Consumer staples stocks
  • Well-established dividend stocks
  • Fixed Income Annuity (FIA)

Recognize that it is generally not a good idea to completely cash out of the market. The best way to accumulate wealth over time is to stay invested regardless of temporary economic declines. In fact, investors who maintained their market positions between 2007 and 2017 experienced an average 240 percent growth rate.

Once the recession has ended, think about rebalancing your portfolio to realign its strategic asset allocation with your investment objectives and timeline. This allows you to cash in on outperforming assets and buy into depressed securities that could be poised for post-recession growth.

Nov 01
Love0

How Will Ongoing China Trade Tensions Tensions Impact Consumer Spending?

By Blog, Stock Market News

China Trade Tensions 2019According to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales came in at a negative 0.3 percent for September, even though it’s still 4.1 percent more than September 2018’s report. The same report followed up on August 2019’s numbers, with a revision by the agency to 0.6 percent, up from 0.4 percent. With the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and tariff uncertainty, how will consumer spending be impacted?

Current State of Trade and Tariffs

With phase one agreed to, at least in principle, at the end of the meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu on Oct. 11, President Trump agreed to keep tariffs at 25 percent on $250 billion in Chinese imports, instead of increasing the tariffs to 30 percent. Additional tariffs also are threatened to be imposed on Dec. 15 for other goods, depending on future negotiations. However, by then the fourth quarter will be nearly completed, so this will probably lessen the likelihood of reduced U.S. consumer spending during the holiday shopping season.

According to an Oct. 3 press release, the National Retail Federation (NRF) projects that consumer purchases for the 2019 holiday season will come in between $727.9 billion and $730.7 billion. The current holiday spending is projected to grow between 3.8 percent and 4.2 percent compared to 2018. It’s important to note that the NRF’s 2019 projections don’t include restaurants, auto dealerships or gas stations. And the projections are higher despite an average retail sales growth of 3.7 percent over the past five years.

The NRF says that along with interest rate and global economic concerns and a politicizing of the economy, trade is an equally concerning factor for retail sales.   

As the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced an additional 10 percent of tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, effective Sept. 1, the NRF explained that consumer confidence was shaken. A September 2019 NRF survey found that 79 percent of retail shoppers were worried that tariffs will increase the prices of goods they would be buying.

With the USTR reporting on Aug. 23 that $112 billion of Chinese imports will face tariffs of 15 percent, up from 10 percent, on Sept. 1, the NRF explains how it impacts consumer items, especially footwear and apparel. The NRF gives a few examples of how consumers, specifically football fans, will be impacted negatively.

Footballs made in China are now subject to 15 percent tariffs, no longer 10 percent. While sweatshirts, T-shirts and jerseys (for football and all professional sports teams made in China), are subject to a 15 percent tariff – this is still a sizeable cost increase. If these were subject to 25 percent tariffs, research by the Trade Partnership done for the NRF found that it would cost U.S. consumers $4.4 billion extra for this type of apparel.

While it hasn’t happened yet, the $160 billion of Chinese imports currently subject to 10 percent tariffs are expected to be increased to a 15 percent tariff on Dec. 15. While it’s still expected to be implemented at the tail end of Q4, any effects will naturally be felt in 2020.

While there’s no way to determine how tariffs will impact retail sales officially calculated, consumers will certainly take a second look at prices whether or not they make a purchase.

Nov 01
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LIFO Versus FIFO and How Each Method Values Inventory

By Blog, General Business News

LIFO Versus FIFOAs the name implies, First-In, First-Out (FIFO) is a way for companies to value their inventory. The first items put into inventory or produced by the company are accordingly the first taken out of inventory or transferred to customers and therefore expensed. When it comes to accounting for acquisition and/or production costs, initial and earlier costs are the first to be expensed, with more recent costs staying on the balance sheet to be expensed later.

Assume a company already has 200 widgets costing $4/widget. From there, the company increased its inventory at three more times during a selected accounting period. Three hypothetical, additional purchases include:

200 widgets @ $6/widget

200 widgets @ $7/widget

200 widgets @ $8/widget

If the company had 500 widgets purchased, there would be different considerations be it FIFO or LIFO. First, we’ll discuss FIFO.

For the 500 widgets sold to customers, the FIFO’s Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) (assuming there are no additional inputs that would increase the COGS for simplicity sake) would be $2,700.

This calculation will look at how COGS works for FIFO:

200 initial widgets costing $4/widget = $800 in COGS  

200 widgets from the first additional purchase, costing $6/widget = $1,200 in COGS

100 widgets from the second additional purchase, costing $7/widget = $700 in COGS

For a total of $2,700 in COGS

Assuming there were no purchases during the selected accounting period, there would be 300 widgets remaining in inventory, or $3,000 in inventory costs. The inventory would show up on the balance sheet, according to the following calculation:

200 widgets @ $7/widget = $1,400 in inventory

200 widgets @ $8/widget = $1,600 in inventory

Now this is compared to LIFO, or Last-In, First-Out, which accounts for expenses by looking at most recent costs first. With the same company selling the same 500 widgets in the same accounting time-frame, but expensing their most recent 500 widgets first, here is the rundown:

200 widgets @ $8/widget = $1,600 in COGS

200 widgets @ $7/widget = $1,400 in COGS

100 widgets @ $6/widget = $600 in COGS

For a total of $3,600 expensed

The inventory would be left as the following:

100 widgets @ $6/widget = $600

200 widgets @ $4/widget = $800

For a total of $1,400 in remaining inventory.

Considerations Between LIFO and FIFO

One important consideration when choosing between LIFO or FIFO is that more likely than not input costs rise over time. Therefore, valuations can change based on the type of method.

Looking at the LIFO method, taking out inventory that’s been produced most recently does not always reflect market prices of the remaining inventory, especially if remaining stock is a few years old. Along with Costs of Goods Sold lowering net income, if older inventory is obsolete and it can’t be sold, it’ll render the inventory’s value far below market prices.

When it comes to the FIFO method, you get a better indication of the remaining inventory’s value. However, using this method increases a business’ net income since remaining inventory can be older and is valued by the Cost of Goods Sold. Similarly, if net income increases, there’s also a good chance of greater tax obligations for the company.

These scenarios account for rising prices. However, if prices are falling, then these scenarios would be reversed.

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